Technical Analysis for Major Currencies
EURO
The pair was incapable of setting a breach for the minor resistance level yesterday and declined strongly presenting focal support at 1.4105. The positive momentum shown on indicators might push the pair to the upside which might reach 1.4225-45 from where the pair might indulge in a new intraday downside move to breach the mentioned support level at 1.4105 which in role might drive the pair towards 1.3900, noting that despite this downside move the short-term trend continues to the upside. It is of the essence to pay attention to fundamentals from the euro area today especially as we await the ECB's rate decision.
The trading range for today is at the key support at 1.4105 and the key resistance at 1.4620.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120.
Support: 1.4105, 1.4080, 1.4030, 1.3980, 1.3945
Resistance: 1.4180, 1.4225, 1.4245, 1.4320, 1.4395
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.4105 with targets at 1.3900, stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.4180
GBP
The dollar recouped much of its acquired losses versus Sterling, as the pair plummeted yesterday by more than 400 pips reaching the minor support level for the ascending channel at 1.6255. We can see that the pair is destined for further losses by the clear continuation negative slope which was seen after the pair set the resistance level for the upside channel, and the chance is open for the pair to decline towards the channel's support level at 1.5700 where the upside wave remains valid as far as this level remains intact. We await the BoE's rate decision today at 11:00 GMT which might cause heightened volatility and fluctuations for the pair.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5700 and the key resistance at 1.6475.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.4840 and 1.6600.
Support: 1.6175, 1.6105, 1.6075, 1.6015, 1.4975
Resistance: 1.6270, 1.6320, 1.6360, 1.6430, 1.6475
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.6175 with targets interlude at 1.6075 and 1.5975, stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.6270
JPY
The pair continued the mixed trading within the ends of a Symmetric Triangular Technical Model, where its ends are tightening gradually and breaching any of those ends will accelerate the pair's move which we expect is to be a breach for the resistance level at 96.35 driving the pair to the upside towards the critical resistance level at 97.60. The short-term trend continues to the downside shall the mentioned resistance level remain intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 91.90 and the key resistance at 99.40.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60.
Support: 95.90, 95.35, 94.75, 94.50, 94.10
Resistance: 96.35, 96.55, 97.40, 97.70, 98.10
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 96.35 with targets at 97.60, stop loss with four-hour closing below 95.35
CHF
The pair managed to reach the long awaited resistance level at 1.0745 to rebound to the downside in a correctional move towards the 50% correction at 1.0675. Negative momentum is seen on indicators which might pressure the pair to extend the intraday downside move which might reach 1.0625-1.0615 and might then revert to the upside in attempts to breach the mentioned 1.0745 resistance level targeting 1.0930 levels within its trading within the current major downside channel. The short-term trend remains to the downside as far as 1.0930 resistance level remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0450 and the key resistance at 1.0930.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245.
Support: 1.0625, 1.0555, 1.0500, 1.0470, 1.0450
Resistance: 1.0690, 1.0745, 1.0800, 1.0820, 1.0860
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.0625 with target at 1.0745, stop loss with four-hour closing below 1.0555
CAD
The pair rushed to the upside in yesterday's trading setting more than 300 pips incline after breaching the resistance level at 1.0970 easily setting the target for this breakout near 1.1550. According to the minor image we can notice a bearish harmonic pattern where we await the intraday decline confirmation with the coming candlestick's bearish closing, as we see the pair can indulge in a downside correction for yesterday's upside wave that might extend towards 1.0970 before reverting to the upside in an attempt to reach the downside channel's major resistance at 1.1310. The short-term trend continues to the downside was far as the latter mentioned resistance level is intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0780 and the key resistance at 1.1335.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300.
Support: 1.1085, 1.1015, 1.0970, 1.0930, 1.0880
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1195, 1.1230, 1.1255, 1.1310
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1085 with targets at 1.0970, stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.1185
Technical Analysis for Crosses
GBP/JPY
The highly predicted daily shooting star candlestick pattern has been formed as shown on the above chart, influenced by the psychological level of 160.00, in addition to 161.8% Fibonacci level for the previously explained harmonic butterfly XA leg. Now further declines are expected over the short and intraday basis particularly with negative daily closing below 155.80 zone. Note that the RSI 14 bearish signal has been activated.
Trading range for today is among the key support at 151.60 and the key resistance at 160.00.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 164.90 remains intact with target at 116.00.
Support: 155.80, 154.90, 153.85, 152.95, 151.60
Resistance: 156.45, 157.00, 157.90, 158.70, 159.35
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 156.50 with targets at 153.75 and stop loss at 158.85
EUR/JPY
The expected negative divergence which we mentioned in yesterday's report has been activated as shown on the above four-hour chart. Now, additional downside actions are highly anticipated pressured by Envelopes -as shown on the above four-hour chart- towards the short term technical target at 134.15, where the pair can re-test the broken areas of 38.2% Fibonacci level. Carefully note that AROON up is adjusting downwards reviving our negative scenario.
Trading range for today is among the key support at 132.50 and the key resistance at 139.25.
The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.
Support: 135.40, 134.85, 134.15, 133.50, 132.60
Resistance: 136.60, 137.30, 138.00, 138.40, 139.25
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 136.60 with targets at 134.75 and stop loss at 138.00
EUR/GBP
Respecting the morning star candle stick pattern which we expected to show a reversal upside action, the royal pair inclined sharply breaching many pivotal resistance points on the way. Now, a slight correction is expected as a normal technical effect for facing the upper line of the minor descending channel, but we see that it will not prevent it from continuing the bullishness appearing clearly on the pair accompanied by a positive laddering candlestick formation. A break for 0.8760 will accelerate the bullish scenario.
The trading range for today is among the key support 0.8560 and key resistance at 0.8930.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.
Support: 0.8700, 0.8665, 0.8635, 0.8600, 0.8560
Resistance: 0.8760, 0.8800, 0.8830, 0.8870, 0.8930
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair at 0.8715 with targets at 0.8800 and stop loss at 0.8645
Fundamental Analysis
Here is the video:
06-04-2009.swf
