Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The Euro versus Dollar pair has been fluctuating since the beginning of the week as it maneuvers around the neckline at 1.3825 yet yesterday the pair was able to breach the intraday pivot resistance at 1.3935 to reach 1.3980. The pair may trade within a minor ascending channel as seen in the above image before confirming the short term trend which we expect is to the upside targeting 1.4460 as far as 1.3825 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3440 and the key resistance at 1.4235

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Support: 1.3860, 1.3825, 1.3745, 1.3700, 1.3665
Resistance: 1.4015, 1.4090, 1.4120, 1.4175, 1.4235

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3860 with targets at 1.4015 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3765

GBP

The 50% correction at 1.6210 was able to halt further declines for the cable as it rebounded back to the upside inclining 200 pips yet noticing that the pair is recording lower highs after every rebound. A bullish technical pattern is witnessed with a neckline at 1.6445 where if breached will open the way on the intraday basis to target 1.6685 before attempting to reach 1.7050. This incline remains as far as 1.6115 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6115 and the key resistance at 1.6770

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7000

Support: 1.6350, 1.6310, 1.6240, 1.6210, 1.6175
Resistance: 1.6445, 1.6500, 1.6560, 1.6610, 1.6640

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.6445 with targets at 1.6610 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.6350

JPY

The USD/JPY pair was able to reach our suggested downside targets at 95.50 yesterday where we see the possibility of forming a bullish harmonic pattern that requires the confirmation of reaching the potential reversal zone by a bullish candle. This pattern alongside the bullish signs seen on momentum indicators suggests the possibility for a slight upside correction to 96.70 before reversing back to the downside to complete the short term trend targets at 93.40. This trend remains as far as trading is below 98.35.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.40 and the key resistance at 98.85

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 95.50, 95.30, 94.65, 94.10, 93.40
Resistance: 96.35, 96.70, 97.15, 97.65, 98.10

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 96.70 with targets at 95.50 and stop loss with four hour closing above 97.30

CHF

The Dollar versus Swissy pair declined yesterday to breach the pivot support at 1.0820 and near our suggested target at 1.0715. The pair is currently correcting to the upside in an attempt to retest the broken level at 1.0820 before reversing back to the downside towards 1.0690 to return within the previously breached descending channel. Note that the latter level may be an obstacle for the pair as it is the key support for the minor ascending channel as seen in the above image.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0585 and the key resistance at 1.1230

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245

Support: 1.0790, 1.0745, 1.0690, 1.0665, 1.0570
Resistance: 1.0820, 1.0870, 1.0910, 1.0955, 1.0980

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.0820 with targets at 1.0690 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.0910

CAD

The Dollar versus Loonie pair succeeded in breaching the 1.1370 level to near our suggested target at 1.1460 yet reversed back to the downside from the key resistance of the ascending channel with targets at 1.1055. A pivot support is found at 1.1215 and must be breached for the pair to reach the target as far as 1.1475 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1055 and the key resistance at 1.1600

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support: 1.1305, 1.1290, 1.1215, 1.1170, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1415, 1.1475, 1.1500, 1.1545

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1215 with targets at 1.1055 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1305

Technical Analysis for Crosses

GBP/JPY

Sterling versus Japanese pound is negatively affected by the consecutive daily bearish closings as shown on the secondary image, while the four-hour chart provides us with negative movements below 161.8% Fibonacci expansion level inside the new detected declining channel of the short term basis. Therefore we speculate that the pair will continue its bearishness today, particularly if it succeeded to penetrate the 155.86 areas.

Trading range for today is among key support at 151.80 and key resistance at 162.25.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 167.45 remains intact with target at 116.00.

Support: 155.85, 155.00, 154.35, 153.60, 152.80
Resistance: 157.30, 158.10, 158.90, 159.35, 160.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 157.30 with targets at 154.90 and stop loss at 159.40

EUR/JPY

The subsidiary image of the daily time scale shows that the overall bearish butterfly which we discussed before has been functioned as the pair is forming continuous negative closings, attacking the initial support areas of 134.15. We observe on the four-hour chart also that the short term classical head and shoulders pattern still has downside targets to reach around 131.00 zones first. Hence, we expect a bearish scenario on the intraday basis as far as 136.10 -value of daily envelopes- remains intact.

Trading range for today is among key support at 129.80 and key resistance now at 137.40.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.

Support: 132.90, 132.00, 131.55, 131.00, 130.10
Resistance: 133.60, 134.15, 135.00, 135.50, 136.10

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 133.80 with targets at 131.70 and stop loss at 135.40

EUR/GBP

The royal pair is supported strongly around 0.8515 zones, forming a bullish candlestick structure for the time being above the broken resistance areas of 0.8495. Hence, we still expect additional upside actions on the intraday basis to activate the needed fourth wave of our captured short term Elliott cycle. AROON indicator is still trending upward, supporting our anticipated scenario.

Trading range is among the key support 0.8370 and key resistance now at 0.8725.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.

Support: 0.8500, 0.8460, 0.8425, 0.8400, 0.8370
Resistance: 0.8535, 0.8565, 0.8590, 0.8640, 0.8700

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair at 0.8510 with targets at 0.8620 and stop loss at 0.8420.

Fundamental Analysis
I'm going to just put out my recommendations on the news trades. I will say though that the several days of downside in the stock market is likely to see a small bounce soon that will see the 920-930 area before turning lower and heading to sharp new retracement lows in the coming week or so. On Wednesday, the prenews sell idea worked wonders on the GBP/USD, but it got started sooner than expected around the 3am London open when the text of Darling's later speech on bank regulation leaked out to some press and GBP was put under heavy pressure all session. Even a rosier than expected BoE minutes and over 20K better than expected Claimant Count Change only temporarily provided relief for GBP/USD. US CPI numbers came in too close to expectations for a trade. For Thursday:

0430 UK Retail Sales y/y (-0.4% expected) - We haven't seen a clear signal on this indicator in awhile, and with some strange price action lately on this news, be careful that the monthly number has a significant surprise in the same direction in order to stick with a trade here. If a trend develops, I recommend holding no longer than 45 minutes.
If it comes out at +0.2%, GBP/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.8%, gbp/USD should sell off 40+ pips.

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The European currency versus Greenback was able to breach the previous discussed neckline of the classical head and shoulders top pattern. Now some kind of consolidation is highly anticipated on the intraday basis as a normal effect for the oversold sign appearing on RSI but we see that it will be followed by a downside action towards the technical target of the overall structure around 1.3325 zones.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3325 and the key resistance at 1.4235

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Support: 1.3760, 1.3700, 1.3645, 1.3590, 1.3540
Resistance: 1.3830, 1.3900, 1.3945, 1.4000, 1.4050

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3775 with targets at 1.3650 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.3865

GBP

A double top formation is in progress for the time being as seen on the above four-hour chart. Hence the bearishness occurred yesterday is anticipated to continue on the intraday basis. Note that AROON indicator is showing that the major action is still downward while Stochastic shows that a very slight correction is needed before resuming the downtrend.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5830 and the key resistance at 1.6525

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6830

Support: 1.6215, 1.6175, 1.6100, 1.6000, 1.5895
Resistance: 1.6325, 1.6385, 1.6425, 1.6500, 1.6560

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.6270 with targets at 1.6050 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.6475

JPY

The USD/JPY pair was resisted strongly around the pivotal resistance areas of 98.50; whereas it formed consecutive bearish formations appearing clearly on the candlesticks. Now this bearishness is expected to continue today as EMA 10-80 lines started to overlap negatively. Note that AROON indicator supports this intraday negative scenario.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.40 and the key resistance at 100.70

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 96.35, 96.00, 95.55, 95.10, 94.65
Resistance: 97.10, 97.75, 98.15, 98.50, 99.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 96.90 with targets at 95.40 and stop loss with four hour closing above 98.00.

CHF

A daily harmonic Gartley pattern is under construction for the time being accompanied by yesterday's bullish candlestick, which encourages us to say that the Dollar versus Swissy is still expected to continue its bullishness toward the first technical target of the pattern -D- areas around 1.1155 whereas a breakout above it will open the door for additional positive actions while AROON supports our scenario.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0585 and the key resistance at 1.1230

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245

Support: 1.0840, 1.0790, 1.0745, 1.0665, 1.0570
Resistance: 1.0930, 1.0980, 1.1020, 1.1080, 1.1155

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.0840 with targets at 1.0980 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.0770

CAD

After building a solid technical base at the 1.1170 support level, the Dollar versus Loonie pair continued to incline, forming a harmonic Crab which is expected to form a potential reversal zone -D- around 1.1500 zones. Now a very slight correction is needed to relieve the indicators and to give the pair the momentum it needs to continue its projected bullishness. Note that a breakout above 1.1380 will accelerate our scenario.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1040 and the key resistance at 1.1600.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support: 1.1300, 1.1245, 1.1210, 1.1170, 1.1135
Resistance: 1.1380, 1.1430, 1.1490, 1.1525, 1.1600

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.1310 with targets at 1.1450 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.1200.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Here is the video:
06-16-2009.swf

I talked about a lot of topics in the video today, and even discussed some specific position trades I am in and recommend, so I highly encourage you watch this one, so the text synopsis is going to be much shorter to encourage that =P We've seen a large technical shift towards USD strength that I've been talking about for the last couple of weeks, and there's some good sentiment and correllations behind it as well. Day to day, it's hard to say each might head (bounce, or continuation?), but medium to longer term I think we still have much lower to go on EU, GU, Gold, and stocks. Again watch the video for much more detail. For news tomorrow:

0430 UK CPI y/y (headline) (2.0% expected) - I'd stay out if there are any conflicts with the m/m or core numbers.
If it comes out at 2.2%, GBP/USD should rise 40 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.
If it comes out at 1.8% or lower, GBP/USD should sell off 40 pips or more in the first 45 minutes of the report.

0500 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (35.0 expected) - Mild positive numbers have given only small upmoves so far, so I'd like to see 15 above expectations for a buy given the downtrend.
If it comes out at 50.0 or higher, EUR/USD should gain 30-40 pips in the first 30 minutes.
If it comes out at 24.0 or lower, EUR/USD should fall 30-40 pips in the first 30 minutes.

0830 US Housing Starts & PPI figures- (H.S. expected at 485K) If PPI has a big deviation, I'd stay out and watch, but if the PPI figures come out roughly within 0.1% of expectations, I'd sell EUR/JPY on a Housing Starts at 430K or below, and buy EUR/JPY on a Housing Starts 550K or above looking for 40-50 pips in 35 minutes.

0915 US Industrial Production m/m (-1.0% expected) - This small number has gained additional focus lately as people accept the bottom but look for concrete signs there is a good foundation underneath it in the overall economy.
If it comes out at -0.4% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 40-50 pips in 20 minutes.
If it comes out at -1.6% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 40-50 pips in 20 minutes.

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The Euro versus dollar pair continued to trade to the downside within a minor descending channel with a key support at 1.3935 which is also a neckline for a bearish technical pattern. We expect the pair to decline on the intraday basis to reach 1.3775 at the very least before determining the next short term trend whether to the upside or decline to target 1.3340

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3625 and the key resistance at 1.4470

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Support: 1.3935, 1.3890, 1.3800, 1.3775, 1.3745
Resistance: 1.4025, 1.4060, 1.4120, 1.4175, 1.4235

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3935 with targets at 1.3775 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.4025

GBP

The Cable is also being pressured to the downside as it faces a support level at 1.6325 where we expect the pair to decline on the intraday basis in an attempt to breach the above mentioned support and target 1.6120 and 1.6020 respectively. The downside trend will remains as far as this level remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6020 and the key resistance at 1.6685

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6830

Support: 1.6325, 1.6285, 1.6215, 1.6175, 1.6120
Resistance: 1.6425, 1.6485, 1.6520, 1.6580, 1.6640

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.6325 with targets at 1.6120 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.6425

JPY

The USD/JPY pair was able to build a solid base at the support level (previously breached key resistance for the descending channel) to reach 98.55 forming the neckline for a bullish technical pattern targeting the 100 mark. The short term trend is adjusting to the upside where reaching the technical targets for the pattern may take the pair to 105.00 as far as 96.80 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.50 and the key resistance at 100.70

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 97.90, 97.45, 97.15, 96.80, 95.90
Resistance: 98.55, 98.90, 99.40, 100.00, 100.70

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 98.55 with targets at 100.00 and stop loss with four hour closing below 97.90

CHF

The Dollar versus Swissy pair continued to pressure the key resistance for the downside channel where it breached it successfully to build a solid base at 1.0775 and head towards a new pivot resistance at 1.0840 where we expect the pair is to incline breaking this resistance and initially target 1.0980. Note that we must follow the price action at the latter level where further inclines may alter the short term trend to the upside with targets at 1.1165. For this incline to occur, the pair must breach 1.0840 as far as 1.0770 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0585 and the key resistance at 1.1165

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245

Support: 1.0770, 1.0745, 1.0665, 1.0640, 1.0570
Resistance: 1.0840, 1.0915, 1.0980, 1.1020, 1.1080

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.0840 with taregts at 1.0980 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.0770

CAD

After building a solid technical base at the 1.1170 support level, the Dollar versus Loonie pair continued to incline in an attempt to reach our suggested resistance level at 1.1310 – 1.1335 which may be a potential reversal zone for a bearish harmonic pattern as seen in the image above. The short term trend is adjusting to the upside after maintaining levels above the breached resistance level for the key downside channel yet we still believe the pair may decline to reach the targets of the harmonic pattern before rebounding back to the upside.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1040 and the key resistance at 1.1480

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support: 1.1170, 1.1100, 1.1040, 1.1005, 1.0970
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1310, 1.1335, 1.1370, 1.1415

Recommendation According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.1245 with targets at 1.1335 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.1170

Technical Analysis for Crosses

GBP/JPY

The daily scenario came back into focus, as Sterling versus Japanese yen has formed a hanging man candlestick pattern clarifying that the triple three correction inside our detected channel might have been ended around 161.50-162.25 zones. Now a long black candlestick is needed to support our Elliott count. The bearish harmonic butterfly and RSI 14 support our negative anticipation.

Trading range for today is among key support at 155.85 and key resistance at 167.45.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 167.45 remains intact with target at 116.00.

Support: 160.50, 160.00, 159.35, 158.60, 157.45
Resistance: 161.50, 162.25, 163.00, 163.80, 164.20

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 161.50 with targets at 160.00 and stop loss at 163.50.

EUR/JPY

The classical [head & shoulders top] is in progress, as the European currency versus Japanese yen is developing consecutive bearish candlestick patterns as shown on the above four-hour chart while AROON down has already penetrated 70.00 zone and Envelopes are pressuring the price to the downside. Hence we will keep our negative anticipation on the intraday basis.

Trading range for today is among key support at 134.15 and key resistance now at 140.00.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.

Support: 136.50, 135.80, 135.25, 134.70, 134.15
Resistance: 137.40, 138.00, 138.25, 139.00, 139.45

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 137.40 with targets at 135.25 and stop loss at 139.20.

EUR/GBP

Protected by 61.8% Fibonacci level of the rally started at 0.6793 and was topped out at 0.9798 as seen on the secondary image of the daily time scale, we still see that the chart needs a fourth wave to complete the Elliott cycle which we discussed before. AROON up has already penetrated value of 30.00, reviving the upside possibility on the short term basis. Hence we will keep our outlook to the upside today as far as 0.8425 remains intact.

Trading range is among the key support 0.8370 and key resistance now at 0.8690.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.

Support: 0.8480, 0.8460, 0.8425, 0.8400, 0.8380
Resistance: 0.8525, 0.8560, 0.8600, 0.8640, 0.8700

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair at 0.8500 with targets at 0.8595 and stop loss at 0.8425.

Fundamental Analysis

Friday was a pretty quiet, rangebound day in most markets, but the price action is very reassuring for medium term downside on GBP/USD, EUR/USD, stocks, and gold. Gold broke the all-important 940 level and should trade lower to next support at 900 (remember ~700ish is our ultimate target though long term). Right now the Diamonds room is working position trade sells on all 3 (GU/EU/Gold).

The patterns over the next few weeks on stocks should prove very important as one of 2 scenarios is likely developing:
a) a primary wave 3 selloff is starting that will take the S&P 500 to 400 or below over the next 6-24 months.
b) another intermediate wave X will zigzag prices to the 800-850 level or a bit lower fairly soon and an intermediate wave Z will take prices to new highs in the late summer or early fall.
The way in which this coming downside develops will make the odds favor one outcome over the other, so I'll let you guys know how this scenario is developing. Right now, I'm short on options better optimized for situation (a) so if (b) develops I'll probably have to take smaller profits on those options and take what I can on the smaller selloff. If you're not in with any puts, you might want to focus more on September contracts and plan to hold them for a few weeks or a month so you can catch the whole (b) scenario move or the first part of the (a) scenario move and then reassess.

As far as news is concerned, there's nothing of note for Monday and the first economic indicators of the week come out Tuesday, so we'll preview those tomorrow.

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The Euro versus Dollar pair was able to reach our upside targets at 1.4145 where we see the pair currently trading within a minor ascending channel. It is possible for the pair to continue trading within this channel and reach the key support at 1.3970 before rebounding back to the upside towards the targets at 1.4470. The short and medium term trends are to the upside as far as 1.3335 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3625 and the key resistance at 1.4470 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Support: 1.3970, 1.3910, 1.3890, 1.3800, 1.3745
Resistance: 1.4140, 1.4180, 1.4225, 1.4265, 1.4340

Recommendation According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3970 with targets at 1.4085 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3890

GBP

The Cable was able to reach our initial upside target yesterday at 1.6580 where it is currently undergoing slight downside correction. The minor ascending channel is taking the pair to the upside where we believe there is still more room for inclines to 1.6875 after breaching the minor resistance level at 1.6685 as far as the minor support at 1.6460 remains intact. The short and medium term trend are to the upside as far as trading is above the critical support at 1.5955.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6120 and the key resistance at 1.6870 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6830

Support: 1.6460, 1.6385, 1.6355, 1.6290, 1.6235
Resistance: 1.6580, 1.6640, 1.6685, 1.6700, 1.6770

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.6460 with targets at 1.6685 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.6385

JPY

The USD/JPY pair continued to trade within a descending triangle yesterday as seen on the above image where we expect the pair to decline towards the pivotal support at 97.15 in an attempt to breach it and target 95.50 on the intraday basis. The short term trend is to the downside as far as a daily close above 98.20 isn't witnessed.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.50 and the key resistance at 100.70 The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 97.15, 96.50, 95.90, 95.50, 94.75
Resistance: 98.20, 98.85, 99.40, 100.25, 100.65

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 97.15 with targets at 95.50 and stop loss with four hour closing above 98.20

CHF

The Dollar versus Swissy pair was able to breach the neckline at 1.0745 to decline 100 pips so far. This breach will open the way for the pair towards 1.0440 yet note that a pivot support for the general trend resides at 1.0570 where a breach of this level will reverse the general trend to the downside. We expect the pair to retest the broken neckline which has now shifted to 1.0760 before reversing back to the downside. This decline remains as far as 1.0855 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0440 and the key resistance at 1.0980

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245

Support: 1.0665, 1.0640, 1.0570, 1.0500, 1.0470
Resistance: 1.0760, 1.0815, 1.0855, 1.0915, 1.0980

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair bleow 1.0760 with targets at 1.0640 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.0855

CAD

The 1.0940 critical support level was able to limit the declines for the Dollar versus Loonie pair as it rebounded back to currently touch the key resistance for the downside channel at 1.1085. We expect the pair is to decline to reach the above mentioned support level in an attempt to breach it and head towards the technical target for the technical pattern at 1.0600. The downside trend remains as far as 1.1085 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0785 and the key resistance at 1.1395

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support: 1.0980, 1.0940, 1.0880, 1.0825, 1.0785
Resistance: 1.1085, 1.1120, 1.1165, 1.1200, 1.1260

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1085 with targets at 1.0940 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1165

FX Technical Analysis

EURUSD

Comment: Consolidating above retracement support, between the 9-day and 26-day moving averages. A daily close clearly above 1.4100 should increase bullish momentum, avoiding another cautious downside probe.

Strategy: Buy at 1.4035; stop well below 1.3900. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4250 and this mont's high at 1.4339.

Direction of Trade: →↗

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
1.3967 "	1.4063
1.39	1.41
1.385	1.4145*
1.3800*	1.417
1.3725	1.425

GBPUSD

Comment: The pound is the best performing currency this week, despite the government and a tube strike in London, taking GBP/JPY to its highest level since early November. Cable is now consolidating above the 9-day moving average, it is not overbought, and bullish momentum is stronger than it has been since at least 1993.

Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.6400, adding to 1.6230; stop well below 1.6000. First target 1.6475, then 1.6650.

Direction of Trade: →↗

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
1.6345 "	1.6436
1.623	1.6475
1.614	1.65
1.605	1.6595
1.594	1.6664*

USDJPY

Comment: Trading either side of a thin Ichimoku ‘cloud', above moving averages, having traded in a broad band roughly between 94.00 and 100.00 since March. Expect more cautious random small swings today and tomorrow.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 98.00, adding to 98.45; stop above 99.25. First target 97.50 then 97.00.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
97.72 "	98.3
97.5	98.45/98.58
97.25	98.7
97	98.85/99.00*
96.65	99.8

EURJPY

Comment: Holding surprisingly neatly above the 9-day moving average at 136.58 again today, hovering either side of April's high at 137.42. We shall continue to allow for more work either side of this area all week.

Strategy: Possibly attempt small shorts at 137.45; stop above 138.50 Short term target 136.50, maybe 135.00.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:

Support	Resistance
136.69/136.58 "	137.8
136.25	138.02
135.7	138.20/138.33
135	138.57
134	139.26*

Fundamental Analysis
We saw some see-saw action on the EU and GU and while the turn towards a longer term downtrend is still the higher probability here, we could face some further strength in the near term, especially if we get good retail sales out of the U.S. and/or bullish equity markets on Thursday. EUR/USD will likely trade short term bullish working towards the highs around 1.4140 or even the 78% retracement at 1.4211 before capping out and turning lower. Stocks right now seemed to have formed yet another triangle pattern, this one with short term bullish implications. From what I can see is that there's about a 70% chance we trade up to new highs on the S&P in the 965-985 range over the next 4-10 days before turning the corner for a very deep selloff. The other 30% chance is that we manage to break through the 920-923 support shelf before hitting new highs and start the steep selloff now. On Wednesday we got a buy signal on NZD/USD that gave plenty of time to get in and managed a nice 70-100+ pip rally depending on how long you stayed in. AUD/USD also gave a near buy signal and managed to rocket up 70 pips as well going much further than I thought, so some decent price action yesterday. For tomorrow's news, there's only one worth trading:

0830 US Core Retail Sales (+0.2% expected) - We've seen some very nice trades with strong price action on this report with relatively small deviations, so look for a nice trade here if we get a surprise.
If it comes out at +0.7% or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50+ pips.

We're also getting NZ Retail Sales, but this number rarely gets worthwhile price action, so it's probably better to play it safe and stay out of it.

*EDIT* at around 0235 we had some USD bullish commentary from the ECB about SDR's not being able to functionally replace USD as a reserve currency, so the short term EU and GU strength part of the picture may not play out as envisioned. Either way, the longer term trend is still very likely down on both pairs.

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The Euro versus Dollar pair was able to maintain levels yesterday below the breached support level to alter the short term trend to the downside where targets are now at 1.3320. As a result, we expect the pair to pressure the 1.3800 level to the downside to reach our targets as far as 1.3980 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3585 and the key resistance at 1.4180

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Support: 1.3850, 1.3800, 1.3745, 1.3700, 1.3640
Resistance: 1.3895, 1.3955, 1.4015, 1.4065, 1.4105

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3800 with targets at 1.3700 and 1.3640 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.3895

GBP

The Cable rebounded to the upside yesterday after reaching the support level pointed out yesterday yet failed to breach the resistance level at 1.6075. The continuous downside pressure and yesterday's closing below the above mentioned resistance level may change the trend to the downside on the short term to target the key support for the channel at 1.5280. Confirming the direction to this target will be the breach of the 1.5820 support level. The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.6075 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5715 and the key resistance at 1.6215

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6660

Support: 1.5920, 1.5870, 1.5820, 1.5785, 1.5715
Resistance: 1.6075, 1.6135, 1.6200, 1.6285, 1.6360

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.6075 with targets at 1.5920 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.6180

JPY

The USD/JPY pair continued to incline yesterday within a minor ascending channel that helped breach key resistances for the short term confirming the incline on the short term as far as trading remains above 97.30. We expect the pair to build a solid base at 97.80 before rebounding back to the upside on the intraday term targeting 99.50 where a breakout will take the pair towards 101.50.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 95.30 and the key resistance at 100.70

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 97.80, 97.30, 96.50 ,95.90, 95.35
Resistance: 98.85, 99.50, 100.25, 100.65, 101.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 97.80 with targets at 99.50 and stop loss with four hour closing below 97.10

CHF

The Dollar versus Swissy pair attempted to return within yesterday's breached downside channel. A close above the support level currently at 1.0870 will open the way for further inclines towards 1.1300 after confirming the breakout of the critical resistance at 1.0955. This incline remains as far as 1.0870 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0745 and the key resistance at 1.1165

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245

Support: 1.0870, 1.0825, 1.0785, 1.0745, 1.0665
Resistance: 1.0955, 1.1020, 1.1080, 1.1100, 1.1165

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.0955 with targets at 1.1100 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.0870

CAD

The Dollar versus Loonie pair was able to reach our downside targets yesterday at 1.1100 before rebounding back to the upside to trade near the key resistance for the downside channel at 1.1200. We expect the pair is to continue attempting to breach this level supported by technical indicators which may be witnessed on the intraday within the minor ascending channel seen in the above image with targets at 1.1335.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0965 and the key resistance at 1.1395

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support: 1.1135, 1.1070, 1.1015, 1.0970, 1.0905
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1260, 1.1335, 1.1370, 1.1415

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.1200 with targets at 1.1335 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.1115

Fundamental Analysis
Not a lot to go over tonight, so I'll keep it short and sweet. Pretty much all of our biases and outlooks remain the same as they were yesterday (see 06-08-2009.swf ). The decent bounces we've seen on EUR/USD and GBP/USD may extend a bit short term here, but ultimately they will have a more dramatic turn lower likely sometime today (Tuesday) or Wednesday. As I told the Diamonds room earlier on Monday, selling the EUR/USD somewhere in the 1.3900 to 1.4000 range and selling the GBP/USD in the 1.6044 to 1.6242 range makes a lot of sense from both a position trade standpoint, and even for some more medium term swing trades. So far those resistance ranges have worked out well so I'd like to stick with them. Stocks continue to be volatile and periodically heavy, but have yet to break that 923 key support that will serve as confirmation of further downside. Once 923 breaks, feel free to load up on some short or in my case, add to the early shorts I'm already in. Until 923 breaks though, be prepared to deal with the possibility of short term new highs on stocks as we continue to top out. There was no major news on Monday, and none set for Tuesday, so we'll have more to talk about tomorrow night.

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The Euro versus Dollar pair was able to reach our suggested targets at 1.3920 last Friday before rebounding back to the upside to complete the short term trend. We expect an incline on the intraday basis with targets at 1.4340 after breaching the minor resistance level at 1.4105. The short term trend to the upside remains as far as 1.3920 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3780 and the key resistance at 1.4340

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Support: 1.3940, 1.3850, 1.3815, 1.3775, 1.3745
Resistance: 1.4050, 1.4105, 1.4180, 1.4245, 1.4340

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3940 with targets at 1.4105 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3850

GBP

The Cable is still on its way towards are target at 1.5770 yet momentum indicators are showing the pair trading within an oversold are which may result in an upside correction. We still believe the pair is to decline on the intraday basis towards the above mentioned support after breaching the minor support at 1.5900 before rebounding back to the upside on the short term to target 1.6600.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5715 and the key resistance at 1.6600

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6600

Support: 1.5900, 1.5850, 1.5770, 1.5715, 1.5700
Resistance: 1.5975, 1.6015, 1.6075, 1.6135, 1.6200

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.5900 with targets at 1.5770 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.5985

JPY

The USD/JPY pair inclined heavily last Friday to breach the pivot resistance for the short term at 97.75. This breakout may alter the short term trend to the upside yet we expect the pair is t decline on the intraday basis to retest 97.75 before confirming the next intraday trend to determine whether the short term decline had ended or will it continue towards 92.40. After touching the 97.75 level will monitor the price action and see the next four hour closing to determine the intraday and short term trends.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 95.30 and the key resistance at 100.70

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 97.75, 97.20, 96.50, 95.90, 95.35
Resistance: 98.85, 99.55, 100.25, 100.65, 101.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 97.75 with targets at 96.50 and stop loss with four hour closing above 98.30

CHF

The Dollar versus Swissy was able to reach 1.0900 before reversing back to the downside due to the key resistance for the upside channel and the clear overbought signals seen on momentum indicators. We expect the pair is to decline on the intraday basis supporting the short term trend where our next targets are at 1.0500 as far as 1.0980 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0500 and the key resistance at 1.1050

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245

Support: 1.0815, 1.0745, 1.0665, 1.0635, 1.0555
Resistance: 1.0890, 1.0980, 1.1020, 1.1080, 1.1125

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.0890 with targets at 1.0745 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.0980

CAD

The Dollar versus Loonie pair was able to touch the key resistance for the descending channel yet the 1.1200 level was able to halt further incline. We expect the pair to reverse to the downside on the intraday basis to target 1.0700 and complete the short term direction towards 1.0300 as far as 1.1335 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0780 and the key resistance at 1.1395

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support: 1.1100, 1.1065, 1.1015, 1.0970, 1.0905
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1310, 1.1335, 1.1370, 1.1415

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1235 with targets at 1.1100 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1335

Technical Analysis for Crosses

GBP/JPY

Sterling versus Japanese yen is still forming the bearish harmonic daily butterfly pattern around the expected -PRZ- potential reversal zone, reviving that the major short term trend is to the downside while the intraday basis is negative also as seen on the secondary four-hour image which shows that a bearish candlestick pattern has been formed with a negative close below 161.8% Fibonacci level. Therefore we will keep our outlook to the downside today particularly if a breakout occurred below 155.86 zones. RSI and AROON support our scenario.

Trading range for today is among key support at 152.60 and key resistance at 161.50.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 164.90 remains intact with target at 116.00.

Support: 156.40, 155.85, 155.00, 154.35, 153.50
Resistance: 157.00, 157.80, 158.90, 159.35, 160.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 157.25 with targets at 154.50 and stop loss at 159.30.

EUR/JPY

The CD leg of the bearish harmonic butterfly that is appearing on the daily basis succeeded to form a short term Elliott cycle with a possible top around 139.25 as seen on the above four-hour chart. Now corrective A-B-C waves are needed to complete the sequence. Hence we expect downside actions today to form the mentioned correction particularly if it succeeded to breach the lower line of the ascending channel.

Trading range for today is among key support at 134.15 and key resistance now at 140.95.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.

Support: 137.30, 136.70, 136.00, 135.45, 135.00
Resistance: 138.00, 138.40, 139.00, 139.45, 140.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 137.70 with targets at 135.50 and stop loss at 139.45.

EUR/GBP

The overall bullish structure continues to be formed on the above four-hour chart for the royal pair; we see that previous candlestick formed a bullish engulfing pattern that closed above the critical areas of 0.8760. So that the established positive scenario that occurred after breaching the upper line of our detected descending channel is still in favor on the intraday basis while bulls-power is increasing. Only a break of [0.8680-0.8660] zones can damage the intraday positive scenario.

Trading range is among the key support 0.8630 and key resistance now at 0.8930.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.

Support: 0.8720, 0.8700, 0.8670, 0.8630, 0.8600
Resistance: 0.8790, 0.8840, 0.8870, 0.8900, 0.8930

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair at 0.8760 with targets at 0.8850 and stop loss at 0.8680.

Fundamental Analysis

Here is the video:
06-08-2009.swf


Big big big turns here on the USD. I explain it in more detail in the video, so please give it a good watch/listen, but suffice to say that I view these turns on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD to be part of a major Primary degree trend shift into USD strength that has thousands of pips further to go. So, I suggest you work a position trade short, sell it on rallies, or just prepare your bias for a protracted downtrend over the next 2-6 months. If the picture changes, we'll be nimble and react accordingly, but that the overwhelmingly convincing case right now in currencies and gold for that matter. Even with NonFarm Payrolls much better than expected, the overall risk appetite rally on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY lasted only 8 minutes. Such good news rejections coupled with record/peak optimism on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD last week are clear indications of a major market top. I don't have a specific target on the GBP/USD just yet, but I believe we'll hit EUR/USD 1.2100 and potentially lower on this decline over the next few months. That said, nothing goes in a straight line, so manage your risk properly and see rallies as a welcome opportunity to short.

Stocks are a bit of a laggard as they often are. We may see modest new highs, or we may have already topped. Ususally big reversals in currencies and some commodities happen ahead of stocks and stocks are soon to follow, but sometimes they take days or weeks to get rolling. We saw enough of a rally rejection on Friday though to get exicited about the downside and start buying some puts though, and I'm looking to add to that position on a break of 923 as that will more concretely confirm the impending downside is at hand.

On the news front, Monday and Tuesday this week have no economic releases that are tradable. However, I think it's an excellent time to join up with the Diamonds room since we're catching this major reversal as it develops and offering a lot of educational webinars to pick up the slack on these slower weeks when there's not a lot of economic data.

Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

After the Euro versus the Dollar pair attempted to breach the pivot support at 1.4105, the pair rebounded back to the upside sharply after Trichet's speech. Trading remains limited among the 1.4105and 1.4245 levels which will determine the next intraday trend as we believe the pair is to attempt to breach the resistance level to the upside to continue the short term trend targeting 1.4710 as far as 1.3910 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3910 and the key resistance at 1.4620

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Support: 1.4160, 1.4105, 1.4080, 1.4030, 1.3980
Resistance: 1.4225, 1.4245, 1.4320, 1.4395, 1.4440

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.4105 with targets at 1.4025 and 1.3910 and stop loss with fourh our closing above 1.4220

GBP

After mixed trading yesterday, the Cable decline towards our initial target at 1.6075 where we still believe the intraday trend is to the downside with the next target at the key support for the major upside channel at 1.5275 yet the short term trend remains to the downside. Note that the NFP is on queue at 12:30 GMT which may result in volatile trading.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.5725 and the key resistance at 1.6660

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.6600

Support: 1.6075, 1.6015, 1.5945, 1.5875, 1.5810
Resistance: 1.6155, 1.6200, 1.6285, 1.6360, 1.6430

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.6075 with targets at 1.5945 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.6155

JPY

The USD/JPY pair continued to incline towards our suggested target currently at 97.45 where we expect the pair is to reverse to the downside from this level to reach the short term targets at 93.40 after the breach of 95.35. The 97.70 level must remain intact for the decline to continue.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 91.90 and the key resistance at 99.40

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 96.45, 95.90, 95.35, 94.75, 94.50
Resistance: 97.45, 97.70, 98.10, 98.85, 99.55

Recommendation According to our analysis, sell the pair below 97.45 with targets at 96.45 and stop loss with four hour closing above 98.10

CHF

The 1.0745 was able to limit gains for the Dollar versus Swissy pair. We currently see the possibility of a formation of a bullish technical pattern with a neckline at the above mentioned level where we expect the pair is to attempt to breach this level to the upside on the intraday basis to incline towards the key resistance for the downside channel at 1.0910. The short term trend remains to the downside as far as 1.0910 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0450 and the key resistance at 1.0910

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245

Support: 1.0635, 1.0555, 1.0500, 1.0470, 1.0450
Resistance: 1.0745, 1.0800, 1.0860, 1.0910, 1.0980

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.0745 with targets at 1.0910 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.0635

CAD

The Dollar versus Swissy pair was able to reach our downside target at 1.0970 due to the harmonic pattern where we expect the pair is to rebound to the upside to target the key resistance for the downside channel at 1.1265. The short term trend remains to the downside as far as the above mentioned resistance remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0745 and the key resistance at 1.1265

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support: 1.0970, 1.0905, 1.0880, 1.0825, 1.0785
Resistance: 1.1025, 1.1090, 1.1150, 1.1195, 1.1230

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.0970 with targets at 1.1090 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.0905

Technical Analysis for Crosses

GBP/JPY

Our suggested daily scenario is still in progress, as the British pound versus Japanese yen succeeded to form consecutive negative candlestick closings confirming the previous discussed reversal candlestick. A short and medium term top around 160.00 zones might be already placed while the weekly closing below the critical areas of 155.80 will bring a downside rally to activate the our detected Elliott corrective wave. Note that RSI 14 bearish sign has been activated already. Therefore our outlook today will be to the downside.

Trading range for today is among key support at 151.60 and key resistance at 160.00.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 164.90 remains intact with target at 116.00.

Support: 155.30, 154.60, 153.85, 152.90, 152.00
Resistance: 157.60, 158.15, 158.90, 159.35, 160.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 155.90 with targets at 153.25 and stop loss at 158.20.

EUR/JPY

The pivotal resistance area of 137.40 is still preventing the pair from developing the daily harmonic scenario, as we see on the secondary shorter time frame of the four-hour chart that it's trapped in a tight range area but trending downwards building a right shoulder of a classical head and shoulders pattern. Therefore a downside action is expected on the intraday basis unless a clear breakout occurs above 139.20 zones.

Trading range for today is among key support at 134.15 and key resistance now at 140.90.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.

Support: 137.00, 136.35, 135.70, 135.00, 134.15
Resistance: 138.00, 138.40, 139.00, 140.00, 140.90

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 137.30 with targets at 134.95 and stop loss at 139.25

EUR/GBP

The royal pair has shown fluctuating movements since yesterday, but it succeeded to breach the resistance line -upper line- of the descending channel beating the critical level of 0.8760. Now slight correctional movements are highly anticipated towards 0.8800 zones to relieve the indicators which show overbought signs and we think that it will be followed by a strong upward action, particularly if it succeeds to breach 0.8840 zones. Hence our overview will be to the upside today as far as 0.8720 remains unbroken decisively.

Trading range is among the key support 0.8650 and key resistance now at 0.9010.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.

Support: 0.8805, 0.8760, 0.8720, 0.8700, 0.8660
Resistance: 0.8840, 0.8875, 0.8900, 0.8940, 0.9010

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair at 0.8805 with targets at 0.8925 and stop loss at 0.8710.

Fundamental Analysis
We had a lot of news trades this morning, and I spent a lot of time recording video for our webinar in the Diamonds room today, so I'm a bit tired of video recording and would rather stick to a text signal tonight if you don't mind. The EUR/USD broke through 1.4100 to confirm the head and shoulders sell on the hourly, only to frustratingly rally back up as GBP continues to be the preferential sell. At the moment, as long as the 1.4241 highs hold on EUR/USD, the bias should be short from here. If those highs go I'd shift to neutral. If we do resume downside price action as we've seen on the GBP, the 1.3800 level is a likely medium term target. One big reason the GBP has been weak are rumors of UK Prime Minister Brown potentially resigning. These rumors have been refuted by his office, but the markets definitely still smell blood. Pretty much all of the scheduled news on Thursday came out pretty vanilla without any big surprises with the exception of very strong UK Halifax house prices which made a very nice short term GBP strengthening move of 80 pips in 40 minutes.

Stocks are working their way through what is likely the final phase of its advance before a significant, major, earthshattering decline. As Doug Hoenig described in a recent essay, we are in the eye of this economic storm, and a second major financial crisis is in store for us on the other side. This one will likley be worst than the last. We'll keep a close eye on stocks since once the reversal is well confirmed there, that will have strong implications for currencies and gold.

After taking a much closer look at gold as part of the Q&A session of our webinar today, it became pretty apparent to me that while gold very well may top out somewhere near recent highs, it's entirely possible we can see an "expanded flat" retracement pattern on gold which would take prices modestly above their $1007 highs before the more major C wave lower that will take prices back below $700 before bottoming out. If an advance past $1000 does occur though, and it is more impulsive in nature, that could mean the entire longer term wave count is off somehow and we'll re-examine it for alternatives. For the news Friday:

0700 CAD Employment (-36.5 expected) - Last month's huge positive deviation created a surprisingly small selloff in the USD/CAD. On the one hand it seems as though CAD levels after news events have been frequently manipulated; however, CAD Employment is usually a very reliable indicator and one bad month shouldn't completely force us to sit on our hands here. A comprimise of trading a wider trigger than usual seems appropriate.
If it comes out at 0.0K or higher, USD/CAD should sell off 50 pips
If it comes out at -62K or lower, USD/CAD should rally 40+ pips

0830 US Nonfarm Payrolls (-520K expected) - We have not seen very large deviations on this report since December 2008. Because of that, we've gotten a lot of strange price action on the smaller deviations primarily due to large order flows that tend to follow this release. I recommend trading a wide 100K trigger and if it comes out closer to expected than that, or if there's a conflict with Unemployment Rate, avoid taking long directional trades and simply look to scalp sell rallies and scalp buy sell offs into support. Because we've seen some clear decoupling of EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, it's hard to say which pair will have the best reaction on the news. My best guess is USD/JPY will be best for a quick news spike pop, but EUR/JPY will have the deepest, most sustainable move.
If it comes out at -420K or higher, EUR/JPY should rally 50+ pips
If it comes out at -620K or lower, EUR/JPY should sell off 50+ pips