Technical Analysis for Major Currencies

EURO

The Euro versus Dollar pair has been fluctuating since the beginning of the week as it maneuvers around the neckline at 1.3825 yet yesterday the pair was able to breach the intraday pivot resistance at 1.3935 to reach 1.3980. The pair may trade within a minor ascending channel as seen in the above image before confirming the short term trend which we expect is to the upside targeting 1.4460 as far as 1.3825 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3440 and the key resistance at 1.4235

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Support: 1.3860, 1.3825, 1.3745, 1.3700, 1.3665
Resistance: 1.4015, 1.4090, 1.4120, 1.4175, 1.4235

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.3860 with targets at 1.4015 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.3765

GBP

The 50% correction at 1.6210 was able to halt further declines for the cable as it rebounded back to the upside inclining 200 pips yet noticing that the pair is recording lower highs after every rebound. A bullish technical pattern is witnessed with a neckline at 1.6445 where if breached will open the way on the intraday basis to target 1.6685 before attempting to reach 1.7050. This incline remains as far as 1.6115 is intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.6115 and the key resistance at 1.6770

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.4840 remains intact with targets at 1.7000

Support: 1.6350, 1.6310, 1.6240, 1.6210, 1.6175
Resistance: 1.6445, 1.6500, 1.6560, 1.6610, 1.6640

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.6445 with targets at 1.6610 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.6350

JPY

The USD/JPY pair was able to reach our suggested downside targets at 95.50 yesterday where we see the possibility of forming a bullish harmonic pattern that requires the confirmation of reaching the potential reversal zone by a bullish candle. This pattern alongside the bullish signs seen on momentum indicators suggests the possibility for a slight upside correction to 96.70 before reversing back to the downside to complete the short term trend targets at 93.40. This trend remains as far as trading is below 98.35.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 93.40 and the key resistance at 98.85

The general trend is to the downside as far as 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60

Support: 95.50, 95.30, 94.65, 94.10, 93.40
Resistance: 96.35, 96.70, 97.15, 97.65, 98.10

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 96.70 with targets at 95.50 and stop loss with four hour closing above 97.30

CHF

The Dollar versus Swissy pair declined yesterday to breach the pivot support at 1.0820 and near our suggested target at 1.0715. The pair is currently correcting to the upside in an attempt to retest the broken level at 1.0820 before reversing back to the downside towards 1.0690 to return within the previously breached descending channel. Note that the latter level may be an obstacle for the pair as it is the key support for the minor ascending channel as seen in the above image.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.0585 and the key resistance at 1.1230

The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245

Support: 1.0790, 1.0745, 1.0690, 1.0665, 1.0570
Resistance: 1.0820, 1.0870, 1.0910, 1.0955, 1.0980

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.0820 with targets at 1.0690 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.0910

CAD

The Dollar versus Loonie pair succeeded in breaching the 1.1370 level to near our suggested target at 1.1460 yet reversed back to the downside from the key resistance of the ascending channel with targets at 1.1055. A pivot support is found at 1.1215 and must be breached for the pair to reach the target as far as 1.1475 remains intact.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1055 and the key resistance at 1.1600

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.1870 remains intact with targets at 1.0300

Support: 1.1305, 1.1290, 1.1215, 1.1170, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1415, 1.1475, 1.1500, 1.1545

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.1215 with targets at 1.1055 and stop loss with four hour closing above 1.1305

Technical Analysis for Crosses

GBP/JPY

Sterling versus Japanese pound is negatively affected by the consecutive daily bearish closings as shown on the secondary image, while the four-hour chart provides us with negative movements below 161.8% Fibonacci expansion level inside the new detected declining channel of the short term basis. Therefore we speculate that the pair will continue its bearishness today, particularly if it succeeded to penetrate the 155.86 areas.

Trading range for today is among key support at 151.80 and key resistance at 162.25.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 167.45 remains intact with target at 116.00.

Support: 155.85, 155.00, 154.35, 153.60, 152.80
Resistance: 157.30, 158.10, 158.90, 159.35, 160.00

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 157.30 with targets at 154.90 and stop loss at 159.40

EUR/JPY

The subsidiary image of the daily time scale shows that the overall bearish butterfly which we discussed before has been functioned as the pair is forming continuous negative closings, attacking the initial support areas of 134.15. We observe on the four-hour chart also that the short term classical head and shoulders pattern still has downside targets to reach around 131.00 zones first. Hence, we expect a bearish scenario on the intraday basis as far as 136.10 -value of daily envelopes- remains intact.

Trading range for today is among key support at 129.80 and key resistance now at 137.40.

The general trend is to the downside as far as 141.44 remains intact with targets at 100.00 followed by 88.97 levels.

Support: 132.90, 132.00, 131.55, 131.00, 130.10
Resistance: 133.60, 134.15, 135.00, 135.50, 136.10

Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair at 133.80 with targets at 131.70 and stop loss at 135.40

EUR/GBP

The royal pair is supported strongly around 0.8515 zones, forming a bullish candlestick structure for the time being above the broken resistance areas of 0.8495. Hence, we still expect additional upside actions on the intraday basis to activate the needed fourth wave of our captured short term Elliott cycle. AROON indicator is still trending upward, supporting our anticipated scenario.

Trading range is among the key support 0.8370 and key resistance now at 0.8725.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.

Support: 0.8500, 0.8460, 0.8425, 0.8400, 0.8370
Resistance: 0.8535, 0.8565, 0.8590, 0.8640, 0.8700

Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair at 0.8510 with targets at 0.8620 and stop loss at 0.8420.

Fundamental Analysis
I'm going to just put out my recommendations on the news trades. I will say though that the several days of downside in the stock market is likely to see a small bounce soon that will see the 920-930 area before turning lower and heading to sharp new retracement lows in the coming week or so. On Wednesday, the prenews sell idea worked wonders on the GBP/USD, but it got started sooner than expected around the 3am London open when the text of Darling's later speech on bank regulation leaked out to some press and GBP was put under heavy pressure all session. Even a rosier than expected BoE minutes and over 20K better than expected Claimant Count Change only temporarily provided relief for GBP/USD. US CPI numbers came in too close to expectations for a trade. For Thursday:

0430 UK Retail Sales y/y (-0.4% expected) - We haven't seen a clear signal on this indicator in awhile, and with some strange price action lately on this news, be careful that the monthly number has a significant surprise in the same direction in order to stick with a trade here. If a trend develops, I recommend holding no longer than 45 minutes.
If it comes out at +0.2%, GBP/USD should rally 40+ pips.
If it comes out at -0.8%, gbp/USD should sell off 40+ pips.